A nomogram for predicting the risk of new vertebral compression fracture after percutaneous kyphoplasty

Abstract Background New vertebral compression fractures (NVCFs) are common adverse events in percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP). The present study aimed to investigate the risk factors for NVCFs in patients after PKP and to construct a nomogram for the prediction of the risk of re-fracture. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of patients after PKP surgery between January 2017 and December 2020. Patients were divided into an NVCF group (n = 225) and a control group (n = 94) based on the presence or absence of NVCFs, respectively, at follow-up within 2 years after surgery. Lasso regression was used to screen for risk factors for re-fracture. Based on the results, a Lasso-logistic regression model was developed, and its prediction performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration, and decision curve analysis. The model was visualized, and a nomogram was constructed. Results A total of eight potential predictors were obtained from Lasso screening. Advanced age, low body mass index, low bone mineral density, lack of anti-osteoporosis treatment, low preoperative vertebral body height, vertebral body height recovery ≥ 2, cement leakage, and shape D (lack of simultaneous contact of bone cement with the upper and lower plates) were included in the logistic regression model. Conclusions A nomogram for predicting postoperative NVCF in PKP was developed and validated. This model can be used for rational assessment of the magnitude of the risk of developing NVCFs after PKP, and can help orthopedic surgeons make clinical decisions aimed at reducing the occurrence of NVCFs.