Modeling the Effects of Drift Orbit Bifurcation on the Magnetopause Shadowing Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons

Abstract Last closed drift shell (LCDS) has been identified as a crucial parameter for investigating the magnetopause shadowing loss of radiation belt electrons. However, drift orbit bifurcation (DOB) effects have not been physically incorporated into the LCDS calculation. Here we calculate event‐specific LCDS using different approaches to dealing with the DOB effects, that is, tracing field lines ignoring DOB, tracing test particles rejecting field lines with DOB, and tracing particles including field lines with DOB, and then incorporate them into a radial diffusion model to simulate the fast electron dropout observed by Van Allen Probes in May 2017. The model effectively captures the fast dropout at high L* and exhibits the best agreement with data when LCDS is calculated by tracing test particles with DOB more physically included. This study represents the first quantitative modeling of the DOB effects on radiation belt magnetopause shadowing loss via a more physical specification of LCDS.