Simulation and spatiotemporal evolution analysis of biocapacity in Xilingol based on CA-Markov land simulation

Biocapacity stability is an important foundation for regional ecosystem stability, ecological service security, and development sustainability. This paper aimed to study the spatial pattern, evolution characteristics, and future trend of biocapacity in Xilingol. Based on GlobeLand30 data in 2000, 2010, and 2020, combined with logistic regression method, CA-Markov model, and biocapacity model, the authors simulated the land use scenario and distribution of biocapacity in 2030. The spatial distribution pattern and spatiotemporal evolution process of regional biocapacity were analyzed in detail. The results showed that: (1) Biocapacity was jointly restricted by land use type, yield, and equivalence factor. The high values were mainly distributed in the farmland areas of the south, and the meadow grasslands, hills, mountains, hidden forests of the east; the median values were mainly distributed in the typical grasslands of the east, the central and the south; the low values were mainly distributed in the desert grasslands of the central and the west; the zero values were mainly distributed in the Gobi and the deserts of the northwest. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the regional biocapacity increased from 9.137 × 106 gha to 9.289 × 106 gha, with an increase of 1.67%. It was expected that from 2020 to 2030, with the continued reduction of farmland, the increase of forest and grassland, and the improvement of grassland coverage, the regional biocapacity will continue to increase by 0.70%, reaching 9.354 × 106 gha.