Peripheral inflammation and depressed mood independently predict neurocognitive worsening over 12 years

Background: Neurocognitive (NC) impairment in people with HIV (PWH) is associated with important adverse outcomes, but no markers exist to predict long-term NC decline. We evaluated depressed mood and markers of persistent inflammation, oxidative stress and altered amyloid processing (all common in PWH) as predictors of NC worsening over 12 years. Methods: PWH were enrolled and followed longitudinally in the CNS HIV Antiretroviral Effects Research (CHARTER) study at six US sites. At entry we quantified biomarkers in blood of inflammation: (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], monocyte chemoattractant protein type 1 [MCP-1], D-dimer, soluble sCD14 (sCD14), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor – type II [sTNFR-II], neopterin, and soluble CD40 ligand [sCD40L], oxidative stress (protein carbonyls, 8-oxo-2'-deoxyguanosine [8-oxo-dG]) and altered amyloid processing [amyloid beta (Aβ)-42, soluble amyloid precursor protein-α (sAPPα)] using commercial immunoassays. The Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) assessed depressed mood at entry. NC decline over 12 years was evaluated using the published and validated summary (global) regression-based change score (sRBCS). A factor analysis reduced dimensionality of the biomarkers. Univariable and multiple regression models tested the relationship between baseline predictors and the outcome of neurocognitive decline. Results: Participants were 191 PWH, 37 (19.4%) women, 46.6% African American, 43.5% non-Hispanic white, 8.83% Hispanic, 15.7% white, 1.6% other; at study entry mean (SD) age 43.6 (8.06) years, estimated duration of HIV infection (median, IQR) 9.82 [4.44, 14.5] years, nadir CD4 104/μL (19,205), current CD4 568/μL (356, 817), and 80.1% had plasma HIV RNA