Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores

BackgroundAccurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area (z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. Methods and ResultsWe explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus