Comprehensive strength evaluation system of commercial centres based on multi-source data: a case of Hefei central city

Abstract Urban commercial centres are the most concentrated areas of economic activity. Understanding the spatial distribution pattern and comprehensive strength of urban commercial centres is important to guide the reasonable graded allocation of urban commercial space, spatial structure optimization and sustainable development of the commercial economy. Herein, mobile phone signalling data are used to identify the functional connection between recreational and residential places and local spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to identify the 24 commercial centres in the central city of Hefei. The comprehensive strength evaluation system of commercial centres is constructed from their basic conditions and customer consumption behaviours, and their comprehensive strength indices are accordingly measured and graded. The spatial distribution characteristics of commercial centres at all levels are analysed, and optimisation suggestions are made for the whole area and region. The following conclusions are drawn from the results of this study. (1) Compared to traditional single-perspective evaluations, the developed comprehensive strength evaluation system considers supply and demand perspectives for commercial centres, providing a more holistic and accurate portrayal of the strengths of various centres within a region. (2) The current commercial centres are characterised by ‘large dispersion and small concentration’ in spatial and hierarchical distribution. (3) The commercial centres in Hefei have formed a relatively complete ‘first, second, and third level’ commercial centre system, with the first level as the core and relying on the urban road system to form a network spatial connection. (4) Most of the commercial centres are concentrated in the First Ring Road, Swan Lake in the Government Affairs District and Binhu Century Town Estate, while most areas north of the Second Ring Road and Binhu New District still lack large-scale commercial centres. This study provides a technical reference for analysing urban commercial spatial structure patterns and provides decision support for optimising the spatial layout of urban commercial service functions.