The degree of risk factor and accumulation effect for large niche in individuals after cesarean section

Abstract Background The risk factors associated with niche on the cesarean scar have been reported, however, the degree of these factors associated with large niche and the accumulation effects of these risk factors on the development of large niche are unclear. Methods Large niche was evaluated by transvaginal sonography during mid-follicular phase. Logistic regression model was used to assess 32 risk factors by univariate analysis. Then, a scoring model based on the screened risk factors was generated. The performance of this model was evaluated by area under curve (AUC). Finally, the scoring model was applied in 123 women to assess the external validation. Result(s) In the training cohort study, 163 women were diagnosed with large niche. The final scoring model involves eight risk factors with the rating scores including age at delivery (30–34 years: 1 point; ≥ 35 years: 4.5 points), retroflexed uterus (8.5 points), meconium-stained amniotic fluid (4.5 points), twice CSs (4.0 points), postpartum endometritis (4.5 points), premature rupture of membranes (2.5 points), intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (mild to moderate: 3 points; severe: 6.5 points), and cervical dilatation (1-3 cm: 2.0 points; 4-10 cm: 4.5 points). The accumulation effect with a cut-off value of 8.0 in the scoring was associated with the large niche after CS. Conclusion(s) This is the first scoring model to objectively quantify the risk of a large niche after CS. Optimal risk factors control by avoiding high score factors and multiple factors accumulation may eliminate the risk of large niche development.