Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century

Abstract Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080–2099 relative to a base period of 1986–2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.