An artificial intelligence-based model exploiting H&E images to predict recurrence in negative sentinel lymph-node melanoma patients

Abstract Background Risk stratification and treatment benefit prediction models are urgent to improve negative sentinel lymph node (SLN-) melanoma patient selection, thus avoiding costly and toxic treatments in patients at low risk of recurrence. To this end, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) could help clinicians to better calculate the recurrence risk and choose whether to perform adjuvant therapy. Methods We made use of AI to predict recurrence-free status (RFS) within 2-years from diagnosis in 94 SLN- melanoma patients. In detail, we detected quantitative imaging information from H&E slides of a cohort of 71 SLN- melanoma patients, who registered at Istituto Tumori “Giovanni Paolo II” in Bari, Italy (investigational cohort, IC). For each slide, two expert pathologists firstly annotated two Regions of Interest (ROIs) containing tumor cells alone (TUMOR ROI) or with infiltrating cells (TUMOR + INF ROI). In correspondence of the two kinds of ROIs, two AI-based models were developed to extract information directly from the tiles in which each ROI was automatically divided. This information was then used to predict RFS. Performances of the models were computed according to a 5-fold cross validation scheme. We further validated the prediction power of the two models on an independent external validation cohort of 23 SLN- melanoma patients (validation cohort, VC). Results The TUMOR ROIs have revealed more informative than the TUMOR + INF ROIs. An Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 79.1% and 62.3%, a sensitivity value of 81.2% and 76.9%, a specificity value of 70.0% and 43.3%, an accuracy value of 73.2% and 53.4%, were achieved on the TUMOR and TUMOR + INF ROIs extracted for the IC cohort, respectively. An AUC value of 76.5% and 65.2%, a sensitivity value of 66.7% and 41.6%, a specificity value of 70.0% and 55.9%, an accuracy value of 70.0% and 56.5%, were achieved on the TUMOR and TUMOR + INF ROIs extracted for the VC cohort, respectively. Conclusions Our approach represents a first effort to develop a non-invasive prognostic method to better define the recurrence risk and improve the management of SLN- melanoma patients.