Northward migration of the East Asian summer monsoon northern boundary during the twenty-first century

Abstract The northern fringe area of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) between arid and semiarid regions is a fragile eco-environment zone and ecological transition zone, and it is highly sensitive to climate change. Predicting the future migration of the northern boundary of the EASM is important for understanding future East Asian climate change and formulating of decisions on ecological protection and economic development in arid and semiarid regions. The reanalysis dataset and simulations of 23 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to investigate the response of the boundary of the ESAM to the global warming. The multi-model ensemble showed a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary during the near-term (2020–2060) and late-term (2061–2099) of the twenty-first century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The northern boundary migrated northwestward by 23–28 and 74–76 km in the near-term and late-term respectively, under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 and by ~ 44 km and ~ 107 km respectively during the near-term and late-term under SSP5-8.5. During the twenty-first century, under various SSPs, the surface of the East Asian subcontinent warmed more than the ocean, thereby increasing the contrast of near-surface temperature and sea level pressure in summer between the East Asian subcontinent and the surrounding oceans. In turn, the intensified land–sea thermal contrast reinforced the EASM meridional circulation and thus transported more moisture from the Indian Ocean into northern China. Additionally, a poleward migration and weakening of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet would also favor an increase in precipitation, eventually caused a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary. The results suggest that the arid and semiarid ecotone will become wetter, which could dramatically improve the eco-environment in the future.