Comprehensive analysis of coagulation indices for predicting survival in patients with biliary tract cancer

Abstract Background Abnormal activation of the coagulation system has been reported in patients with malignancies, but its prognostic significance in biliary tract cancer (BTC) remains unclear. This study aims to analyze and compare the prognostic value of coagulation indices in patients with BTC. Methods The medical records of 450 patients with BTC who underwent surgical resection at our hospital between 2003 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted to compare the predictive accuracy of coagulation indices. A predictive nomogram for overall survival (OS) was established based on the Cox regression analysis and validated in both the training and validation cohorts. A novel stratification model was created according to the total points of the nomogram. Results Fibrinogen and international normalized ratio (INR) had the best predictive accuracy among the coagulation indices considered and were also the independent prognostic factors for OS. The nomogram and the novel stratification model had satisfactory performance and outperformed TNM staging. Conclusions The study demonstrated that coagulation indices are valuable in predicting OS in BTC, with fibrinogen and INR having the best predictive ability. The nomogram and the novel stratification model could be applied to predict survival for patients with BTC.