Spatiotemporal Bayesian Machine Learning for Estimation of an Empirical Lower Bound for Probability of Detection with Applications to Stationary Wildlife Photography

An important parameter in the monitoring and surveillance systems is the probability of detection. Advanced wildlife monitoring systems rely on camera traps for stationary wildlife photography and have been broadly used for estimation of population size and density. Camera encounters are collected for estimation and management of a growing population size using spatial capture models. The accuracy of the estimated population size relies on the detection probability of the individual animals, and in turn depends on observed frequency of the animal encounters with the camera traps. Therefore, optimal coverage by the camera grid is essential for reliable estimation of the population size and density. The goal of this research is implementing a spatiotemporal Bayesian machine learning model to estimate a lower bound for probability of detection of a monitoring system. To obtain an accurate estimate of population size in this study, an empirical lower bound for probability of detection is realized considering the sensitivity of the model to the augmented sample size. The monitoring system must attain a probability of detection greater than the established empirical lower bound to achieve a pertinent estimation accuracy. It was found that for stationary wildlife photography, a camera grid with a detection probability of at least 0.3 is required for accurate estimation of the population size. A notable outcome is that a moderate probability of detection or better is required to obtain a reliable estimate of the population size using spatiotemporal machine learning. As a result, the required probability of detection is recommended when designing an automated monitoring system. The number and location of cameras in the camera grid will determine the camera coverage. Consequently, camera coverage and the individual home-range verify the probability of detection.