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Horizon Scan on the Benefits of Ocean Seasonal Forecasting in a Future of Increasing Marine Heatwaves for Aotearoa New Zealand

Authors :
Craig L. Stevens
Claire M. Spillman
Erik Behrens
Niall Broekhuizen
Paula Holland
Yvonne Matthews
Ben Noll
Joanne M. O'Callaghan
Neelesh Rampal
Robert Owain Smith
Iman Soltanzadeh
Leigh W. Tait
David I. Taylor
François Thoral
Erica Williams
Source :
Frontiers in Climate, Vol 4 (2022)
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
Frontiers Media S.A., 2022.

Abstract

With climate heating, Aotearoa New Zealand is expected to experience more marine heatwaves (MHW) in the coming decades. These extreme events are already impacting the island nation's marine and coastal environments and marine industries at a variety of scales. There will potentially be substantial benefits in developing an early warning system–specifically ocean seasonal forecast tools. This near-term 2,030 horizon scan reviews studies supporting the development of this capability and notes work needed to enable stakeholders to benefit from this knowledge. Review findings congregate around six themes; (1) MHW impacts, (2) mechanistic understanding, (3) observational basis, (4) seasonal forecast tools, (5) supporting Te Tiriti (The Treaty of Waitangi) and Māori aspirations, and (6) end-user engagement. The primary recommendation is a cross-institutional, cross-sector MHW Taskforce that would address, in a coordinated and effective fashion, the real, multi-faceted challenges associated with the committed pathway of warming. A range of sub-recommendations follow that connect with the United Nations Ocean Decade initiative.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
26249553
Volume :
4
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Frontiers in Climate
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.9aefaa8db30e4f42841a08cad9d2be0d
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.907919