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Assessing Simulations of Imperial Dynamics and Conflict in the Ancient World
- Source :
- Cliodynamics, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 24-39 (2019)
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- eScholarship Publishing, University of California, 2019.
-
Abstract
- The development of models to capture large-scale dynamics in human history is one of the core contributions of cliodynamics. Most often, these models are assessed by their predictive capability on some macro-scale and aggregated measure and compared to manually curated historical data. In this report, we consider the model from Turchin et al. (2013), where the evaluation is done on the prediction of “imperial density”: the relative frequency with which a geographical area belonged to large-scale polities over a certain time window. We implement the model and release both code and data for reproducibility. We then assess its behavior against three historical datasets: the relative size of simulated polities versus historical ones; the spatial correlation of simulated imperial density with historical population density; and the spatial correlation of simulated conflict versus historical conflict. At the global level, we show good agreement with population density (R2
- Subjects :
- History (General)
D1-2009
Economic history and conditions
HC10-1085
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 23737530
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- Cliodynamics
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.9c3e5ceb9c441aeb4815e380a627aaa
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio10245282