Carbon emission reduction effect of the low-carbon city construction pilot program

[Objective] The construction of high-quality low-carbon cities is an important measure to address climate change issues, implement the concept of low-carbon development, and achieve the “dual carbon” goals, Therefore,the significance of examining the carbon emission reduction effect of low-carbon pilot cities policy is prominent. [Methods] Based on the panel data of 216 cities in China from 2006 to 2019, this study used the second and third batch cities of the low-carbon city construction pilot program for a quasi-natural experiment. Using the propensity score matching and difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) method and based on the robustness test results, this study analyzed the impact of low-carbon city construction on urban carbon emissions in multiple dimensions, and it used an mediation effect model to investigate the mechanism of impact of the low-carbon pilot program. [Results] (1) Compared with non-pilot cities, low-carbon pilot program participating cities significantly reduced urban carbon emissions, which remained significant after the inclusion of parallel trends and placebo robustness tests. (2) The low-carbon city pilot program can play a role in carbon reduction by improving the level of urban green technology innovation, adjusting industrial structure, and reducing energy consumption. (3) The carbon emission reduction effect of the low-carbon city pilot program had significant heterogeneity. The carbon emission reduction effect in eastern and central cities and non-resource-based cities was stronger than that in western cities and resource-based cities. The effect of the low-carbon city pilot program on carbon emission reduction was more obvious in the cities to the south of the Hu Huanyong Line than in cities to the northwest of the line. [Conclusion] This study evaluated the phased effect of carbon emission reduction of the second and third batch cities of the low-carbon city construction pilot program from a multi-dimensional perspective, which will help deepen the understanding and explore the path of low-carbon development, and provide references for more cities to systematically build low-carbon cities in the future. Under the new situation, the construction of low-carbon cities should follow the local conditions and change with time, develop differentiated and precise pathways to promote green development, and lay the foundation for the realization of the “30·60” carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.