Climate change induced habitat expansion of nutria (Myocastor coypus) in South Korea

Abstract The nutria, (Myocastor coypus), is a semiaquatic rodent native to the subtropical and temperate regions of South America. The species was introduced to South Korea for meat and fur production purposes and a wild population has become established. The species subsequently invaded aquatic ecosystems and destroyed aquatic vegetation and cultivated crops. Thus, it is essential to understand their current distribution and future range expansion for effective control and eradication strategies to reduce the risk of colonization into new regions. In this study, we used niche modeling procedure to identify potentially suitable habitats for M. coypus under current and future predicted climate change using the maximum entropy algorithm. We found that the main habitat area of M. coypus is expected to expand under a warming climate from ~ 4069 km2 in the southern and southeastern regions of South Korea, to the northern border of the country, with estimated ranges of 21,744 km2, 55,859 km2, and 64,937 km2 by 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. The findings of the present study assist in identifying the future distribution and potential dispersion routes of M. coypus in South Korea, which is important for informing the government regarding essential management actions plans at regional and local scales.