Trends in the incidence and survival of women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer from 1990 to 2019: a large population-based analysis

Abstract Hormone receptor-positive breast cancer (BC) is the most prevalent subtype of BC and is generally correlated with a favorable prognosis. This study aimed to determine the incidence and survival trends among women diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive BC between 1990 and 2019. Female patients with hormone receptor-positive BC for calendar years 1990–2019 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and categorized into six diagnostic groups according to the year of diagnosis. Age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs) were calculated using joinpoint regression. We used the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analyses to determine the association between diagnostic groups, and overall survival (OS) and BC-specific survival (BCSS). The final analysis included 370,729 women, among whom 37,943 (10.2%), 49,266 (13.3%), 55,652 (15.0%), 64,451 (17.4%), 77,127 (20.8%), and 86,290 (23.3%) were diagnosed between 1990 and 1994, 1995–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019, respectively. Within the overall cohort, IRs gradually increased from 70 per 100,000 in 1990 to 113 per 100,000 in 2019 (average annual percent change, 1.59%; 95% CI, 1.18–1.99). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the survival outcomes gradually improved over nearly three decades among hormone receptor-positive BC patients, with a 0.8% and 1.3% decrease in risk for all-cause and BC-specific mortality each year, respectively. Compared to 1990–1994, hormone receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed in 2015–2019 had a 22% lower risk of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76–0.81) and a 27% lower risk of BC-specific death (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.70–0.76). The development of treatment strategies within the past three decades, especially endocrine therapy, may contribute to the continuous improvement of clinical outcomes in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC.