Deforestation and water availability as main drivers of human-elephant conflict

Climate change, land use conversion and human population growth are reducing and fragmenting historical ranges of large animals, especially in Africa. Particularly, land conversion to agriculture is leading to coexistence challenges between humans and elephants. In this study we investigated the factors affecting the intensity of elephant crop damage in the Selous-Niassa Wildlife Corridor (Tanzania). We also predicted future conflicts (crop damage intensity) for different land management (crop types) and water scarcity (drought) scenarios using model averaging. Our results show that intensity of elephant damage (proportion of area damaged in an individual farm as a percentage) increased with crop palatability and land use conversion in the last ∼30 years, particularly deforestation. Conversely, the intensity of elephant damage decreased with increasing human activity (higher proportion of settlements and farmland), and distance to waterbodies. Most farms affected by elephants (65 %) were at short distances (< 250 m) from waterbodies. We also predicted a significant increase of elephant crop damage intensity from 17 % when the farm is covered with no palatable crops, to 54 % and 63 % when palatable crops covered 50 % and 100 % of the farmland, respectively. For the predicted water stress scenario in which all small seasonal waterbodies would dry off, we predicted a 46 % reduction in the total area of farmland susceptible to damage although we expect an increase in human-wildlife competition for water. We conclude that land use changes and water availability strongly affect elephant crop damage. We hope these results contribute to the development and better implementation of management strategies that enhance long-term peaceful coexistence between humans and elephants.