A machine-learning based objective measure for ALS disease severity

Abstract Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) disease severity is usually measured using the subjective, questionnaire-based revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R). Objective measures of disease severity would be powerful tools for evaluating real-world drug effectiveness, efficacy in clinical trials, and for identifying participants for cohort studies. We developed a machine learning (ML) based objective measure for ALS disease severity based on voice samples and accelerometer measurements from a four-year longitudinal dataset. 584 people living with ALS consented and carried out prescribed speaking and limb-based tasks. 542 participants contributed 5814 voice recordings, and 350 contributed 13,009 accelerometer samples, while simultaneously measuring ALSFRS-R scores. Using these data, we trained ML models to predict bulbar-related and limb-related ALSFRS-R scores. On the test set (n = 109 participants) the voice models achieved a multiclass AUC of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85–0.88) on speech ALSFRS-R prediction, whereas the accelerometer models achieved a median multiclass AUC of 0.73 on 6 limb-related functions. The correlations across functions observed in self-reported ALSFRS-R scores were preserved in ML-derived scores. We used these models and self-reported ALSFRS-R scores to evaluate the real-world effects of edaravone, a drug approved for use in ALS. In the cohort of 54 test participants who received edaravone as part of their usual care, the ML-derived scores were consistent with the self-reported ALSFRS-R scores. At the individual level, the continuous ML-derived score can capture gradual changes that are absent in the integer ALSFRS-R scores. This demonstrates the value of these tools for assessing disease severity and, potentially, drug effects.