Scientific uncertainty and the challenges of applying criminal law: Lessons from China's COVID-19 response

This study addresses the complexities of applying criminal law during public health emergencies, particularly under the shadow of scientific uncertainty, and explores the challenge of balancing public health protection with individual rights. The primary aim is to dissect the application of criminal law in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, focusing on the impact of scientific uncertainty on legal decision-making and the efficacy of criminal law interventions in public health crises. This study utilized a doctrinal method combined with case studies, integrating theoretical frameworks on risk and uncertainty with an analysis of China's legal responses to COVID-19. It involved assessing legislative and policy documents alongside judicial decisions, focusing on their alignment with evolving scientific understanding and public health strategies. The study reveals significant hurdles, including the limitations of empirical rules in judicial judgments, the emergence of technocratic bureaucracy, and the complexities surrounding risk mitigation and legal attribution under uncertain conditions. It highlights the inadequacy of traditional criminal law mechanisms to respond dynamically to the evolving landscape of public health emergencies. To address these challenges, the study recommends the development of temporary criminal legislation tailored to public health emergencies, the adoption of risk-based criminal law approaches, and the refinement of individualized risk assessment procedures. These measures aim to provide a more flexible and effective legal framework capable of safeguarding public health while ensuring the protection of individual liberties during crises.