Analyzing post-2000 groundwater level and rainfall changes in Rajasthan, India, using well observations and GRACE data

Research on groundwater and water resources is essential for preserving viable environments. Although the arid area has been identified as a significant hotspot for groundwater depletion, the Indian desert region was not included in the initial analysis. This study intends to evaluate Rajasthan's groundwater level (GWL) and rainfall trends from 2000 to 2021 and how variations in GWLs are related to long-term rainfall. Annual GWL and rainfall data time series were collected from 921 monitoring stations for 33 districts of Rajasthan. The GWL trends and rainfall were identified using non-parametric modified Mann-Kendall test and Spearman rho techniques. Pearson's, Kendall's (tau b), and Spearman's analyses were used to determine the correlation between GWL and rainfall. The results from the modified Mann-Kendall and Spearman rho methods reveal that GWL has a significant declining trend in 38 % of districts, where 13 % have no trend, and the rest of 49 % have a rising trend. The yearly rainfall trend at 70 % and 30 % of the districts are rising and stable, respectively. A negative correlation between GWL depth and rainfall was discovered in each district, where 15 % are firm, 58 % are moderate, and 27 % are weak negative correlations. Also, the regression analysis estimates the effect of rainfall on GWL, which was observed: rainfall negatively influenced the depth of GWL at 58 % of the districts, had a positive impact at 33 %, and others had no effect. GRACE TWS anomaly shows a decreasing trend of −1.22 cm/yr, and GRACE and GWL anomalies have a positive relationship (r = 0.471). Results conclude that rainfall is the primary influencer on GWL in this semi-arid region vulnerable to drought.