Assessment of long-term climate variability and its impact on the decadal growth of horticultural crops in central India

Abstract Background The impact of climate change on horticultural production is of utmost concern worldwide. One such vulnerable region of horticultural importance is the Madhya Pradesh state in the central part of India. It is crucial to analyse the long-term trend in climatic variations and its effect on horticultural crop production. Therefore, this study focuses on detecting trends in mean annual precipitation and temperature of 115 years for the 15 districts covering all the regions of the state as well as projections of all the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2080 of Madhya Pradesh state. The decadal (2010–2020) insight into the area and production of horticultural crops is undertaken which will help forecasting the future growth trend. For a better insight, case study on four horticultural crops is undertaken to assess their decadal growth trend vis-à-vis climate parameters in these 15 districts. Results The Mann–Kendall test for 1901–2016 and Sen’s slope indicated a non-significant change in long-term trend for precipitation except for increasing change in Khargone and decreasing change in Rewa districts. Significant increasing trend of average temperature is obtained for Hoshangabad, Jabalpur, Sagar and Rewa districts. The Sen’s slope indicated an increase of 0.005 to 0.009 °C for maximum temperature and 0.005 to 0.012 °C for minimum temperature annually. The projections of all the RCP climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080 indicated non-significant variation in precipitation but an increase in maximum (1.4 to 4.1 °C) and minimum (1.45 to 4.65 °C) annual temperatures. An increasing trend in area and production for horticultural crops is also observed in central India for the study period. There is yield increase in all the crops selected in case study except for potato, which recorded a decreased yield between the years 2010–2015. Conclusion The Mann–Kendall test and projections indicate towards climate change with a temperature rise. Though the decadal study indicates an increasing trend in horticultural crops, the districts identified to be affected by climate change need to have a plan to lessen the horticultural loss in the state. This study contributes to understanding the future climate change trends and its impact on horticultural crop production to formulate various adaptation strategies.