Increased Ecosystem Carbon Storage between 2001 and 2019 in the Northeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Global alpine ecosystems contain a large amount of carbon, which is sensitive to global change. Changes to alpine carbon sources and sinks have implications for carbon and climate feedback processes. To date, few studies have quantified the spatial-temporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage and its response to global change in the alpine regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Ecosystem carbon storage in the northeastern QTP between 2001 and 2019 was simulated and systematically analyzed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Furthermore, the Hurst exponent was obtained and used as an input to perform an analysis of the future dynamic consistency of ecosystem carbon storage. Our study results demonstrated that: (1) regression between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and biomass (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.974, p < 0.001), and between NDVI and soil organic carbon density (SOCD) (R2 = 0.810, p < 0.001) were valid; (2) the spatial distribution of ecosystem carbon storage decreased from the southeast to the northwest; (3) ecosystem carbon storage increased by 13.69% between 2001 and 2019, and the significant increases mainly occurred in the low-altitude regions; (4) climate and land use (LULC) changes caused increases in ecosystem carbon storage of 4.39 Tg C and 2.25 Tg C from 2001 to 2019, respectively; and (5) the future trend of ecosystem carbon storage in 92.73% of the study area shows high inconsistency but that in 7.27% was consistent. This study reveals that climate and LULC changes have positive effects on ecosystem carbon storage in the alpine regions of the QTP, which will provide valuable information for the formulation of eco-environmental policies and sustainable development.