From local wind energy resource to national wind power production

Wind power is one of the most established renewable power resources yet it is also one of the most volatile resources. This poses a key challenge for successfully integrating wind power at a large scale into the power grid. Here we present an analysis of the time scales associated with wind power from hourly to seasonal fluctuations and how combining spatially distributed wind power sources helps to reduce its volatility. The analysis, based on observed wind speeds, is then generalised in a simple statistical model to develop a tool which can estimate the power output profile from a particular consortium of wind power sources. As the estimator only uses the local, or the mean national, wind resource and the mean distance between the sites to estimate the joint power output profile, it can be used by developers to estimate the reliability of their joint power output and to form the most effective consortium.