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Increased Invasion Risk of Tagetes minuta L. in China under Climate Change: A Study of the Potential Geographical Distributions

Authors :
Yuhan Qi
Xiaoqing Xian
Haoxiang Zhao
Rui Wang
Hongkun Huang
Yanping Zhang
Ming Yang
Wanxue Liu
Source :
Plants, Vol 11, Iss 23, p 3248 (2022)
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2022.

Abstract

Tagetes minuta L., a member of the Tageftes genus belonging to the Asteraceae family, is a well-documented exotic plant native to South America that has become established in China. In this study, 784 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables were used to predict the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of T. minuta under current and future climatic changes using an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that (1) three out of the twelve variables contributed the most to the model performance: isothermality (bio3), precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) the PGDs of T. minuta under the current climate covered 62.06 × 104 km2, mainly in North, South, and Southwest China; and (3) climate changes will facilitate the expansion of the PGDs of T. minuta under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in both the 2030s and 2050s. The centroid of suitable habitats under SSP2-4.5 moved the longest distance. T. minuta has the capacity to expand in China, especially in Yunnan, where there exist no occurrence records. Customs, ports, and adjacent regions should strengthen the quarantine of imported goods and mobile personnel for T. minuta, and introduced seedlings should be isolated to minimize their introduction risk.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
22237747
Volume :
11
Issue :
23
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Plants
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.fd62aa60611d4a9c92b8fc3123220b91
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11233248