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Monitoring and Forecasting of Key Functions and Technologies for Automated Driving

Authors :
Christian Ulrich
Benjamin Frieske
Stephan A. Schmid
Horst E. Friedrich
Source :
Forecasting, Vol 4, Iss 2, Pp 477-500 (2022)
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2022.

Abstract

Companies facing transformation in the automotive industry will need to adapt to new trends, technologies and functions, in order to remain competitive. The challenge is to anticipate such trends and to forecast their development over time. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that allows us to analyze the temporal development of technologies, taking automated driving as an example. The framework consists of a technological and a functional roadmap. The technology roadmap provides information on the temporal development of 59 technologies based on expert elicitation using a multi-stage Delphi survey and patent analyses. The functional roadmap is derived from a meta-analysis of studies including 209 predictions of the maturity of automated driving functions. The technological and functional roadmaps are merged into a consolidated roadmap, linking the temporal development of technologies and functions. Based on the publication analysis, SAE level 5 is predicted to be market-ready by 2030. Contrasted to the results from the Delphi survey in the technological roadmap, 2030 seems to be too optimistic, however, as some key technologies would not have reached market readiness by this time. As with all forecasts, the proposed framework is not able to accurately predict the future. However, the combination of different forecast approaches enables users to have a more holistic view of future developments than with single forecasting methods.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
25719394
Volume :
4
Issue :
2
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Forecasting
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.fdf1ec7ba6444449ae08ce3ae6cbcf2
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4020027