Reduced mortality risk in alcoholics who achieve long-term abstinence

Mortality rates in alcoholics who abstain from alcohol for long periods of time are no higher than those in the general population. Of 199 alcoholics enrolled in a treatment program who were followed up to 11 years, 101 relapsed and 98 achieved long-term abstinence. At 11 years, the mortality rate in the abstainers was similar to that in a control group of 92 non-alcoholics, but the rate in the relapsed alcoholics was five times higher than would be expected in the general population. The mortality rate was especially high in relapsed alcoholics between the ages of 20 and 45; there were nine times as many deaths as would be expected in the general population. Smoking did not appear to be associated with increased mortality in relapsed alcoholics, since abstainers smoked as much as relapsers, and both groups smoked more than the non-alcoholics.
Objectives.-To determine if alcoholic men who achieved stable abstinence experienced fewer deaths than those who relapsed and to develop a model predictive of premature mortality. Design. -A cohort of alcoholic men recruited into a prospective study of neurocognitive effects of alcoholism was followed up from 1 through 11 years. A demographically equated group of nonalcoholic men was also followed up. Alcoholics were classified as stable abstainers or relapsers. Setting.-Alcoholics were patients or ex-patients from a Department of Veterans Affairs Alcoholism Treatment Program and/or members of local chapters of Alcoholics Anonymous. Participants.-There were 234 alcoholic men who met the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, criteria for alcohol dependence. Follow-up status regarding relapse and mortality was obtained for 199 alcoholic subjects (85%). Of these, 101 had relapsed and 98 had abstained. Ninety-eight nonalcoholic controls equated for age, education, and sex also participated. Mortality status was obtained for 92 subjects in this group (94%). Exclusions.-Major medical and psychiatric illness and history of nonalcoholic drug abuse. Main Outcome Measure. - Death during a follow-up period of 1 through 11 years. Death was ascertained through the National Death Index, the California State Department of Health and Vital Statistics, the State Department of Motor Vehicles, and through personal contact with informants, relatives, and significant others of the subjects. Results.-There were 19 deaths among relapsed alcoholics compared with the expected number of 3.83 (99% confidence interval (CI), 9.64 to 33.38). Among abstinent alcoholics there were four deaths (expected = 3.21; 99% Cl, 0.67 to 12.59). The standardized mortality ratio for relapsed alcoholics was 4.96, which significantly exceeded the expected ratio P Conclusions. Alcoholic men who achieve stable abstinence do not differ from nonalcoholic men in mortality experience; however, alcoholics who relapse die at a rate 4.96 times that of an age-, sex-, and race-matched representative sample from the US Bureau of the Census. JAMA, 1992;267:668-672)