Currency crises in transition economies: some further evidence

This paper seeks to explain the causes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets in selected transition economies (Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine) over the period 1995-2006. It uses a set of categorical regression (CATREG) models . It considers the influence of macroeconomic, social development, institutional and external variables, based on first, second or third generation previously released theoretical models, bringing a new innovative and wider approach to the field. It finds that the insights developed by second and third generation models complement rather than substitute for the explanation provided by first generation models in the case of transition economies. Keywords: currency crisis, transition economies, Eastern European countries JEL Classification Codes: F41, P33
One of the biggest desires of policy makers around the world is to develop a warning system of currency crisis. Such a task requires their ability to analyze potential causes [...]