A stochastic method for stand-alone photovoltaic system sizing

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2010.06.006 Byline: Claudia Valeria Tavora Cabral (a), Delly Oliveira Filho (a), AntA[acute accent]nia SA[acute accent]nia Alves C. Diniz (b), Jose Helvecio Martins (a), Olga Moraes Toledo (a), Lauro de Vilhena B. Machado Neto (b) Keywords: Deterministic sizing; Stochastic sizing; Solar energy; Stand-alone photovoltaic systems; Probabilistic modeling Abstract: Photovoltaic systems utilize solar energy to generate electrical energy to meet load demands. Optimal sizing of these systems includes the characterization of solar radiation. Solar radiation at the Earth's surface has random characteristics and has been the focus of various academic studies. The objective of this study was to stochastically analyze parameters involved in the sizing of photovoltaic generators and develop a methodology for sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. Energy storage for isolated systems and solar radiation were analyzed stochastically due to their random behavior. For the development of the methodology proposed stochastic analysis were studied including the Markov chain and beta probability density function. The obtained results were compared with those for sizing of stand-alone using from the Sandia method (deterministic), in which the stochastic model presented more reliable values. Both models present advantages and disadvantages, however, the stochastic one is more complex and provides more reliable and realistic results. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, Av. P. H. Rolfs, s/n. 36570-000 Vicosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil (b) Group of Studies in Energy - GREEN Solar, Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais - PUC Minas, Rua Dom Jose Gaspar no. 500, Predio 03, Sala 218 - Coracao Eucaristico 30535-610 Belo Horizonte - Minas Gerais, Brazil Article History: Received 28 October 2009; Revised 5 May 2010; Accepted 17 June 2010 Article Note: (miscellaneous) Communicated by: Associate Editor Elias Stefanakos