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Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy
- Source :
- Applied Economics. August 1, 2009, Vol. 41 Issue 18, p2309, 14 p.
- Publication Year :
- 2009
-
Abstract
- The information content and predictive power of the Italian term spread for the real economic growth rates and recession probabilities are determined. The recession forecasts are shown to be much better and accurate, as compared to the other chronologies.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00036846
- Volume :
- 41
- Issue :
- 18
- Database :
- Gale General OneFile
- Journal :
- Applied Economics
- Publication Type :
- Periodical
- Accession number :
- edsgcl.246892818