Does the Federal Open Market Committee cycle affect credit risk?

This paper studies the returns of credit default swap (CDS) indices over the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cycle. We document that the CDS return is significantly higher in even weeks than in odd weeks of the FOMC cycle. The biweekly pattern in the CDS market is not a mere reflection of that in the stock market. A simple trading strategy based on the biweekly pattern yields an annual excess return of 8.8%. This pattern is linked to the resolution of macroeconomic uncertainty by the biweekly schedules of the Fed Reserve internal Board of Governors meetings. We provide further evidence that the Fed affects the CDS market via unexpected information signals and monetary policies that lead to reductions in the risk premium. KEYWORDS Credit default swap, Cycle, Fed, FOMC, Monetary policy JEL CLASSIFICATION G12.G14
1 | INTRODUCTION The effects of scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings on asset prices have drawn growing attention from academic researchers. Cieslak et al. (2019) (hereafter, CMVJ) document [...]