THE ANTIPOVERTY IMPACT OF THE EITC: NEW ESTIMATES FROM SURVEY AND ADMINISTRATIVE TAX RECORDS.

I. INTRODUCTION Among the means-tested transfer programs in the US social safety net, the earned income tax credit (EITC) stands out as one of the largest in terms of expenditure [...]
We reassess the antipoverty effects of the earned income tax credit (EITC) using unique data linking the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement to Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data for the same individuals spanning tax years 2005-2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that the antipoverty estimates of the EITC are countercyclical in terms of number of recipients, with roughly four million people of all ages and 1.9 million children lifted from after-tax poverty in a typical year. We outline how researchers using public data can address discrepancies between survey estimates of the EITC and administrative tax records. Keywords: tax policy, poverty, administrative data linkage, automatic stabilizer JEL Codes: H2, 13