Substitution of natural gas for coal: climatic effects of utility sector emissions

Substitution of natural gas for coal is one means of reducing carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) emissions. However, natural gas and coal use also results in emissions of other radiatively active substances including methane (C[H.sub.4]), sulfur dioxide (S[O.sub.2]), a sulfate aerosol precursor, and black carbon (BC) particles. Will switching from coal to gas reduce the net impact of fossil fuel use on global climate? Using the electric utility sector as an example, changes in emissions of C[O.sub.2], C[H.sub.4], S[O.sub.2] and BC resulting from the replacement of coal by natural gas are evaluated, and their modeled net effect on global mean-annual temperature calculated. Coal-to-gas substitution initially produces higher temperatures relative to continued coal use. This warming is due to reduced S[O.sub.2] emissions and possible increases in C[H.sub.4] emissions, and can last from 1 to 30 years, depending on the sulfur controls assumed. This is followed by a net decrease in temperature relative to continued coal use, resulting from lower emissions of C[O.sub.2] and BC. The length of this period and the extent of the warming or cooling expected from coal-to-gas substitution is found to depend on key uncertainties and characteristics of the substitutions, especially those related to: (1) S[O.sub.2] emissions and consequent sulphate aerosol forcing; and (2) the relative efficiencies of the power plants involved in the switch.