An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).