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Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations: China 2004-2013

Authors :
Ma, Zongwei
Hu, Xuefei
Sayer, Andrew M
Levy, Robert
Zhang, Qiang
Xue, Yingang
Tong, Shilu
Bi, Jun
Huang, Lei
Liu, Yang
Source :
Environmental Health Perspectives. 124(2)
Publication Year :
2016
Publisher :
United States: NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI), 2016.

Abstract

Three decades of rapid economic development is causing severe and widespread PM2.5(particulate matter (is) less than 2.5 ) pollution in China. However, research on the health impacts of PM2.5 exposure has been hindered by limited historical PM2.5 concentration data. We estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to 2013 in China at 0.1 deg resolution using the most recent satellite data and evaluated model performance with available ground observations. We developed a two-stage spatial statistical model using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and PM2.5 concentrations from China's recently established ground monitoring network. An inverse variance weighting (IVW) approach was developed to combine MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue AOD to optimize data coverage. We evaluated model predicted PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to early 2014 using ground observations. The overall model cross-validation R(sup 2) and relative prediction error were 0.79 and 35.6%, respectively. Validation beyond the model year (2013) indicated that it accurately predicted PM(sub 2.5) concentrations with little bias at the monthly (R(sup 2) = 0.73), regression slope = 0.91) and seasonal (R(sup 2) = 0.79), regression slope = 0.92) levels. Seasonal variations revealed that winter was the most polluted season and that summer was the cleanest season. Analysis of predicted PM2.5 levels showed a mean annual increase of 1.97 micro-g/cu cm between 2004 and 2007 and a decrease of 0.46 micro-g/cu cm between 2008 and 2013. Our satellite-driven model can provide reliable historical PM2.5 estimates in China at a resolution comparable to those used in epidemiologic studies on the health effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure in North America. This data source can potentially advance research on PM2.5 health effects in China.

Details

Language :
English
Volume :
124
Issue :
2
Database :
NASA Technical Reports
Journal :
Environmental Health Perspectives
Notes :
NNX11AI53G, , NNG11HP16A
Publication Type :
Report
Accession number :
edsnas.20160003388
Document Type :
Report
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409481