A Real-time View of Orbital Evolution in HM Cancri

HM Cancri is a double-degenerate binary with the shortest orbital period presently known. The 5.36 minute period is seen as a large amplitude, soft X-ray modulation, likely resulting from a hot-spot produced by direct impact accretion. With such a7short orbital period it is expected to have a gravitational wave luminosity comparable8to or larger than that in the X-ray, and its orbital frequency is known to be increasing9at a rate consistent with the expected loss of angular momentum due to gravitational radiation. We use recent Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer(NICER) observations to extend its long-term X-ray timing baseline to almost 20 yr. Phase coherent timing of these new data combined with existing Chandra data demonstrates conclusively that the rate of orbital frequency increase is slowing, and we measure a non-zero f0=8.95 ± 1.4 x 1027 Hz s2, to our knowledge the first such measurement of its kind for any compact astrophysical binary. With the simultaneous high precision measurement of f0= 3.557 ± 0.005 x 1016 Hz s1, we estimate that the system17will reach its maximum orbital frequency of fmax 3.1172091 mHz in 1,260 ± 200 yr, indicating that the system is close to its epoch of maximum orbital frequency. Assuming mass transfer is conservative, the measurement of f<0 implies that the20accretion rate from the donor is growing, with 5.4 x 1010<M2<4.0 x 1010 M⊙yr2. Further quantitative comparisons with theoretical models should enable more precise inferences regarding its current evolutionary state.