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Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Authors :
Tamsin L. Edwards
Sophie Nowicki
Ben Marzeion
Regine Hock
Heiko Goelzer
Hélène Seroussi
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Donald A. Slater
Fiona E. Turner
Christopher J. Smith
Christine M. McKenna
Erika Simon
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Jonathan M Gregory
Eric Larour
William H. Lipscomb
Antony J. Payne
Andrew Shepherd
Cécile Agosta
Patrick Alexander
Torsten Albrecht
Brian Anderson
Xylar Asay-Davis
Andreas Aschwanden
Alice Barthel
Andrew Bliss
Reinhard Calov
Christopher Chambers
Nicolas Champollion
Youngmin Choi
Richard Cullather
Joshua Cuzzone
Christophe Dumas
Denis Felikson
Xavier Fettweis
Koji Fujita
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
Rupert Gladstone
Nicolas R. Gollege
Ralf Greve
Tore Hattermann
Matthew J. Hoffman
Angelika Humbert
Matthias Huss
Philippe Huybrechts
Walter Immerzeel
Thomas Kleiner
Philip Kraaijenbrink
Sebastien Le clec'h
Victoria Lee
Gunter R. Leguy
Christopher M. Little
Daniel P. Lowry
Jan-Hendrik Malles
Daniel F. Martin
Fabien Maussion
Mathieu Morlighem
James F. O’Neill
Isabel Nias
Frank Pattyn
Tyler Pelle
Stephen F Price
Aurélien Quiquet
Valentina Radić
Ronja Reese
David R. Rounce
Martin Rückamp
Akiko Sakai
Courtney Shafer
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
Sarah Shannon
Robin S. Smith
Fiammetta Straneo
Sainan Sun
Lev Tarasov
Luke D. Trusel
Jonas Van Breedam
Roderik van de Wal
Michiel van den Broeke
Ricarda Winkelmann
Harry Zekollari
Chen Zhao
Tong Zhang
Thomas Zwinger
Source :
Nature. 593
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
United States: NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI), 2021.

Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
14764687 and 00280836
Volume :
593
Database :
NASA Technical Reports
Journal :
Nature
Notes :
NNX17AG65G, , EUH 2020 869304, , UK Natural Environment Research Council NE/T007443/1, , Academy of Finland 286587, , Academy of Finland 322430, , NSF 1852977, , New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment RTUV1705, , BMBF FKZ 01LP1502C, , BMBF 01LP1504D, , DE-AC02-05CH11231, , ASCI000002, , EUH 2020 820829, , DFG WI4556/2-1, , DFG WI4556/4-1, , DFG WI4556/3-1, , FKZ: 01LP1925D, , EUH 2020 820575, , NSF PLR-1603799, , NSF PLR-1644277
Publication Type :
Report
Accession number :
edsnas.20210026127
Document Type :
Report
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y