A PRELIMINARY TOTAL COST MODEL FOR COMPARING RANGE SAFETY POLICIES WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE KWAJALEIN AREA

This report begins with the assumption that the total national cost of a range safety policy is a useful measure for comparing different safety policies. Using the situation of ICBM launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base into the Kwajalein Atoll, there is developed a model for determinivg expected numbers and costs of casualties, expected numbers and costs of casualties, expected number and cost of good missiles destroyed, and other factors entering into an over-all cost summation. With the model it is possible to determine the influence on tatal cost (or on its components) of changes in parameters of safety policies. The parameter changes possible include (1) altering the target point, (2) moving the impact limit lines, and (3) modifying or eliminating the range safety system (GERSIS). As far as is known, this is the first concerted effort to estimate hazards in areas protected by impact limit lines. (Author)