Coupled COAMPS Extended Range MJO Prediction

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences the intraseasonal variability in the tropics. It is essential to understand factors that contribute to the model forecast errors associated with the extended prediction of the MJO. The long-term goals of this research are to identify the physical processes that affect the extended range prediction of the MJO and shed light on future improvements in the model parameterizations and ensemble forecast strategies that aim to increase the seasonal prediction skill of the NAVY models. The objectives of this project are to use a fully coupled COAMPS to investigate the effect of air-ocean coupling, the prediction barrier problem near the Maritime Continent, and cloud-resolving impact on the MJO structure. There are some indications that air-sea coupling improved the MJO prediction but the mechanisms are not well understood. Many coupled and uncoupled global seasonal prediction models as well as global NWP models have a low skill in forecasting the MJO propagation from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent. Does the lack of model horizontal resolution, or model parameterizations of air-sea coupling, or parameterizations of convection, or all of these factors contribute to this prediction barrier?
Prepared in cooperation with Computer Sciences Corporation, Monterey, CA.