Evacuation Trip Generation and Distribution Methods for Riverine Flood Disaster by combination of geographic information system capabilities and operations research models

Floods in populated areas expose humans to serious threats to life. In light of this fact, evacuation of flood-affected populations is considered the most appropriate protective measure to minimize the negative impacts of floods. Yet, unplanned or spontaneous evacuations during flood disasters can cause severe traffic congestion that makes evacuees more vulnerable and exposes them to further risk. Therefore, efficient and effective planning of flood disaster evacuation operations is important for minimising the devastating consequences of flood disasters. In Australia, flooding caused by rainfall is the costliest natural disaster. Flood hazards range in scale and intensity from regular, planned-for events to manageable emergencies, and sometimes even to devastating disasters. Similarly, affected population evacuation modelling methods might range from simple, certain models to complicated, uncertain models, hence, not every evacuation model is appropriate for every flood hazard event. Riverine flood-related risks are usually manageable due to the gradual development of the flood and the predictability of the factors causing them, such as rainfall, floodplain locations, and flooding’s spatial and temporal distributions. Safer evacuations are possible when the evacuation is pre-warned, and evacuation can therefore be used as a protective measure for riverine flood disasters. Therefore, the planning of evacuation operations for a riverine flood disaster is vital for minimising their negative impacts on human lives. This research’s ultimate objective is to develop a systematic method to simulate, model and optimise riverine flood evacuation trip distribution between flood-affected areas and disaster relocation shelters. To achieve this ultimate objective, three stages of this research have been devised. Stage 1 describes how to utilise the theoretical contributions that have been identified from the analysis of flood-related resources outlined in the literature review.