Forecast-based Financing in Urban Informal Settlements - A Viable Disaster Risk Management Strategy?

Rationale: Urban informal settlements are vulnerable and exposed to hazards. Weather forecasting is possible and provides a “window of opportunity” to push cash or aid to vulnerable dwellers before the disaster strikes. Forecast-based Financing is a framework, which provides this system, and it has had great success with rural pilots. Currently no research has investigated the implementation of Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements. Research question: The thesis investigates the obstacles and benefits of implementing Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements and discusses whether Forecast-based Financing is a viable disaster risk management strategy in urban informal settlements. Methodology: The thesis uses three scoping studies to investigate what is known about Forecast-based Finaning in scientific and grey literature and what is known in scientific literature about preparedness work related to floods in urban informal settlements. The scoping studies are the basis for conducting five semi-structured interviews with FbF practitioners. Findings: Several obstacles and benefits of implementing Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements were identified. Obstacles varied from lack of commitment from local governments, large numbers of actors, general vulnerability, identifying appropriate actions, lack of communication and coordination, hetereogeneous communities, attracting new dwellers, safety issues, and lack of long-term thinking. Benefits were related to being able to act faster and not waiting until after the disaster, financial efficiency, keeping dwellers from adopting negative coping strategies and linking actors while improving communication and coordination. Conclusion: Benefits outweigh obstacles and Forecast-based Financing is a viable disaster risk management strategy in urban informal settlements.
Is Forecast-based Financing a viable strategy against floods in urban informal settlements? The thesis investigates the obstacles and benefits of implementing Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements. Forecast-based Financing is a system that utilizes weather forecasts to trigger humanitarian aid or specific actions to prevent or lower consequences before the disaster strikes instead of traditional humanitarian response, which is reacting after the disaster. It is concluded that Forecast-based Financing is a viable strategy with obvious benefits that outweigh the obstacles of implementation. Acting faster and financially sustainable/efficient are significant and weighty benefits compared to the list of potential obstacles in urban informal settlements such as being a stakeholder heavy environment, a place with lack of political commitment from municipalities and heterogeneous communities with difficult working conditions. These findings are important for humanitarians fighting floods and implementing Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements and should be used as guidance when planning to implement such programs. With rising urbanization to hazard prone urban areas and an increasing number of floods, the rationale to intervene in urban areas has never been larger than now. With the ability to predict weather hazards through science, humanitarians can utilize Forecast-based Financing to secure a “window of opportunity” and act before the disaster strikes. The alternative is reacting after, which leads to people taking high interest loans to evacuate, increasing costs and most importantly more human suffering. Preparing for disasters to happen is financially more sustainable than waiting until it strikes and United Nations Development Program, states that $1 spend on lowering consequences before saves $7 in response after the disaster strikes. Forecast-based Financing has not been implemented in urban informal settlements yet and obstacles/b