Models for pest's epidemiology: review, documentation and evaluation for Pest Risk Analysis (Mopest). Scientific Report submitted to EFSA

The main objectives of the Mopest project (acronym of Models for pest‟s epidemiology: review, documentation, and evaluation for Pest Risk Analysis) were to carry out a review and to produce an inventory of the models describing the establishment, development, and / or spread of plant pests on crops in Europe. This inventory should support the EFSA Panel on Plant Health in providing independent scientific advice on the risk of the spread, establishment, or development of organisms (plant pests) harmful to plants, plant products, or biodiversity; therefore, the inventory considers those models that can be potentially used for accurate and robust quantitative prediction of pest risk through the use of variables related to climate and / or plant growth and development as input factors. A protocol was developed for reviewing literature sources describing models relevant to the Mopest project. This protocol includes: i) a search strategy for retrieving information sources; and ii) a series of descriptors (metadata) that describe each source. The search strategy was developed according to the principles of the “systematic literature review”. About 200 metadata were defined for describing each model included in the inventory; international standards and codes were used whenever possible. The protocol was implemented in a user-friendly web-portal. The web-portal was designed to facilitate the on-line entry of new models and the on-line modification or updating of the existing ones. The web-portal also makes it possible to search the models within the inventory by using both basic and advanced search procedures, and to summarize results in a clear and concise way. A database was developed containing models related to wheat pests and quarantine pests for Europe as listed in the EPPO A1 list. About 200 models were entered in the web-based portal.