ENSEMBLE methods to reconcile disparate national long range dispersion forecasts

ENSEMBLE is a web-based decision support system for real-time exchange and evaluation of national long-range dispersion forecasts of nuclear releases with cross-boundary consequences. The system is developed with the purpose to reconcile among disparatenational forecasts for long-range dispersion. ENSEMBLE addresses the problem of achieving a common coherent strategy across European national emergency management when national long-range dispersion forecasts differ from one another during an accidentalatmospheric release of radioactive material. A series of new decision-making “ENSEMBLE” procedures and Web-based software evaluation and exchange tools have been created for real-time reconciliation and harmonisation of real-time dispersion forecastsfrom meteorological and emergency centres across Europe during an accident. The new ENSEMBLE software tools is available to participating national emergency and meteorological forecasting centres, which may choose to integrate them directly intooperational emergency information systems, or possibly use them as a basis for future system development.