High-resolution modeling of climate change impacts on water supply and demand, and GHG emissions in an Okanagan-Similkameen Subwatershed, British Columbia, Canada

The interactions of atmospheric, landscape, hydrologic and agricultural processes on natural resources and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were assessed for a mountain watershed in south central British Columbia, Canada. A novel solar radiation model which uses the most available input data was developed in order to model solar radiation for the study watershed as input to the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) hydrometeorological model. Historical and future water supply and vegetation water demand under a range of climate scenarios using GENESYS were modelled for the watershed and the results revealed possible future changes in water supply and demand that are likely to stress future water resource management in the watershed. The GENESYS and Holos models were linked to estimate GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, and N2O) and soil carbon change for both crop and animal production processes in a simulated farm in the watershed under different climate and management scenarios and the results indicated that climate change is likely to affect future agricultural GHG emissions and suggested the available mitigation options.