Scenario Planning in Dynamic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration

The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system time lines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and time lines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential time lines.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Lean Advancement Initiative