Predicting Reading and Spelling Difficulties in Transparent and Opaque Orthographies: A Comparison between Scandinavian and US/Australian Children

In this study, predictors of reading and spelling difficulties among children learning more transparent (Norwegian/Swedish) and less transparent (English) orthographies were examined longitudinally from preschool through Grade 2 using parallel versions of tests. A series of logistic regression analysis indicated three main findings. First, phonological awareness as a predictor of reading difficulties in the Scandinavian sample was time-limited to Grade 1, but remained as a significant predictor in the English-speaking sample. Second, phonological awareness predicted spelling difficulties similarly across orthographies. Third, preschool and kindergarten RAN was a significant predictor of reading and spelling difficulties at both Grades 1 and 2 across orthographies. The authors conclude that phonological awareness diminishes as a predictor of reading difficulties in transparent orthographies after the first years of schooling, that RAN is a better long-term predictor of reading difficulties, and that phonological awareness is associated with spelling difficulties similarly in transparent and opaque orthographies.