Embedding stakeholders’ priorities into the low-emission development of the East African dairy sector

A growing body of evidence shows that more intensive dairy systems can be good for both nature and people. Little research considers whether such systems correspond with local priorities and preferences. Using a mixed methods approach, this study examined the effects of three intensification scenarios on milk yield and emission intensities in Kenya and Tanzania. Scenarios included (a) an incremental change to feed management; (b) adaptive change by replacing grasslands with nutrient-rich fodder crops; and (c) multiple change involving concurrent improvements to breeds, feeds and concentrate supplementation. These scenarios were co-constructed with diverse stakeholder groups to ensure these resonate with local preferences and priorities. Modelling these scenarios showed that milk yield could increase by 2-15% with incremental changes to over 200% with multiple changes. Greenhouse gas emission intensities are lowest under the multiple change scenario, reducing by an estimated 44%. While raising yields, incremental change conversely raises emission intensities by 9%. Our results suggest that while future interventions that account for local priorities and preferences can enhance productivity and increase the uptake of practices, far reaching shifts in practices are needed to reduce the climatic footprint of the sector. Since this does not align with local priorities and preferences in many situations, future low-emission development initiatives should place more emphasis on geographic and stakeholder heterogeneity when designing targeting and implementation strategies. This suggests that in low-income countries, bottom-up approaches may be more likely to improve dairy productivity and align with mitigation targets than one-size-fits-all approaches.