Risk factors of damage in early diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus: results of the Italian multicentre Early Lupus Project inception cohort

Objective: To investigate risk factors for damage development in a prospective inception cohort of early diagnosed SLE patients. Methods: The Early Lupus Project recruited an inception cohort of patients within 12 months of SLE classification (1997 ACR criteria). At enrolment and every 6 months thereafter, the SLICC/ACR Damage Index was recorded. The contribution of baseline and time-varying covariates to the development of damage, defined as any SLICC/ACR Damage Index increase from 0 to ≥1, was assessed using univariate analysis. Forward-backward Cox regression models were fitted with covariates with P < 0.05 to identify factors independently associated with the risk of damage development. Results: Overall, 230 patients with a mean (s.d.) age of 36.5 (14.4) years were eligible for this study; the mean number of visits per patient was 5.3 (2.7). There were 51 (22.2%) patients with SLICC/ACR Damage Index ≥1 after 12 months, 59 (25.6%) after 24 months and 67 (29.1%) after 36 months. Dyslipidaemia [P = 0.001; hazard ratio (HR) 2.9; 95% CI 1.5, 5.6], older age (P = 0.001; HR 3.0; 95% CI 1.6, 5.5), number of organs/systems involved (P = 0.002; HR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1, 1.8) and cardiorespiratory involvement (P = 0.041; HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.0, 3.7) were independently associated with an increased risk of developing damage. Risk profiles for damage development differed for glucocorticoid-related and-unrelated damage. HCQ use (P = 0.005; HR 0.4; 95% CI 0.2, 0.8) reduced the risk of glucocorticoid-unrelated damage. Conclusion: We identified risk factors of damage development, but little effect of glucocorticoids, in this early SLE cohort. Addressing modifiable risk factors from the time of SLE diagnosis might improve patient outcomes.