Population assessments of ungulate prey and Komodo dragons across protected areas in eastern Indonesia

Prey species can influence the population dynamics of their predators. Therefore, to conserve and manage endangered or threatened species, it is crucial to understand predator-prey relationships and to monitor the abundance of predators and their prey. The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an apex predator endemic to Indonesia. It is considered a vulnerable species due to demographic decline and a limited distribution. However to date, little monitoring has been conducted to estimate the spatial and temporal variation in the abundances of the Komodo dragon and its ungulate prey species. This study evaluated the usefulness of faecal counts and distance sampling for monitoring the abundance of the three major prey species of Komodo dragons. This study also investigated site occupancy of Komodo dragons, and examined the influence of site-specific covariates (prey abundance, habitat type and level of protection) on site occupancy across 11 sites on five islands in and around Komodo National Park, eastern Indonesia. Faecal densities of three ungulate prey species: Timor deer (Cervus timorensis), feral pig (Sus scrofa) and water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis), were positively correlated with their population densities estimated from distance sampling. The abundance of Timor deer was negatively influenced by the abundance of water buffalo, possibly through competition for space and food. Whilst for feral pig and water buffalo all models give weak support (wi ≤ 0.37) to explain the variation in their abundances. Several competing models were evaluated to estimate their effects on the site occupancy of Komodo dragons. The two most parsimonious models indicated that ungulate prey, representing a deer density model (∆= 0.00; w= 0.68) and an additive model incorporating deer and buffalo density ((∆= 1.61; w= 0.30) were both positively correlated with site occupancy estimates for Komodo dragons and presumably the abundance of Komodo dragons. The site occupancy of Komodo dragons