Trends in Tuberculosis Incidence in the Australian-Born in Victoria: Opportunities and Challenges to Elimination

Australia is a low tuberculosis incidence country. In the setting of increasing migration, we aimed to investigate the epidemiology and trends of tuberculosis in the Australian-born population in the state of Victoria between 1992 and 2017. We performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of demographic, clinical and outcome data extracted from a centralized notifiable disease database. The mean incidence of tuberculosis was 1.19 cases per 100,000 population per year with a small but significant reduction of 0.98% per year. The median age of cases decreased from 67.5 years in 1994 to 17 years in 2017. Among 0⁻14 year-olds, there was an increase from 0.13 cases per 100,000 population in 1996 to 2.15 per 100,000 population in 2017. Data for risk factors were available from 2002 onwards. The most common risk factor in the 0⁻14 year age group was a household contact with tuberculosis (85.1%), followed by having a parent from a high tuberculosis incidence country (70.2%). We found the rate of tuberculosis in the Australian-born population in Victoria is low. However, there has been an increase in incidence in children, particularly among those with links to countries with high tuberculosis incidence. This could threaten progress towards tuberculosis elimination in Australia.